Technological Future Studies: Definitions Towards a Conceptual Model of Foresight

The management of technology considers it a valuable asset for the firm; thus, it uses auditing, monitoring, and forecasting to detect the value and potential of technology for the benefit of the company. Forecasting activities are currently the focus of the telecommunications industry due to the vast scope, variety, and technological complexity largely driven by Moore's Law: every 18 months, computing power doubles. As a result, companies in the sector suffer significantly from rapid technical obsolescence, coupled with the high demand for technology needed annually to meet their clients' changing needs. How can we grow while replacing and satisfying the services demanded by users in the future? The answer lies in foresight, that is, the study of the probable, possible, and desirable future by imagining it from the future, not the present. The main objective of this work is to propose a technological foresight model for telecommunications companies to support managers' decisions. By evaluating technological threats and opportunities, the firm can timely and rationally anticipate changes in the political, economic, social, technological, organizational, and environmental environment through various scenarios, thus maintaining and increasing its competitive advantage. The result is obtained by explaining the importance that technology management and strategy represent to the firm, contextualizing the importance of technology and telecommunications services, the advantages that foresight represents over other future studies, and how it is practiced through scenarios and cross-impact assessment of different technological alternatives. To achieve the conceptual model, technology models by Twiss (1992) and Preez and Pistorius (1999) are compared and discussed, as well as foresight models by Ackoff (1969), Ozbekhan (1970), and Sachs (1976), concluding with the proposal of the model in the modules: intelligence-surveillance, normative planning, scenario selection, strategy selection, and implementation.